Bitcoin futures data shows ‘improving’ mood’ despite -31% GBTC premium

Bitcoin futures data shows ‘improving’ mood’ despite -31% GBTC premium

Bitcoin (BTC) traders may be nervous about the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates, but research shows that bulls are gaining broad support.

In its latest update on July 26, analytics firm Arcane Research flagged what it said was “improving” sentiment among institutional traders.

Caution mixed with “improving mood”

While attention is focused on the possibility of a deeper macro low in BTC/USD, it seems that not every investor is ready to get out.

Even with current prices 70% below their all-time highs, sentiment among institutions is building. For Arcane, the proof is the rising premiums paid by CME Group’s bitcoin futures customers.


This premium, while still low by historical standards, has been rising in the second half of July.

“Basis premiums for CME Group and offshore exchanges are now at similar levels, indicating that market sentiment is balanced across different groups of traders,” the update reads.

“While CME’s basis premium has grown, it is still only 2.2%, a relatively low level in history. This suggests that while sentiment is improving, traders still need to exercise caution.”

Bitcoin futures premium comparison chart (screenshot).Source: Arcane Research

In a similar trend, funding rates on derivatives platforms are now slightly negative, suggesting traders are conservative about future price movements. An extremely negative average funding rate suggests that the overriding view is that a price crash is imminent.

“Nevertheless, when the contagion effect ravaged the market, funding rates remained well above most of June,” Arcane continued.

As Cointelegraph reported, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also continued to comment on growing investor confidence, recently ending its longest tenure in the lowest “extreme fear” zone.

At the same time, Arcane expressed caution about the degree of leverage in market operations expressed in “elevated” open interest.

“This high leverage makes the market vulnerable to a short or long squeeze if there is a major price movement on either side,” it added.

GBTC “premium” is no slouch

Still struggling in the current environment, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shows few signs of improvement.

Related: Bitcoin Below $22,000 Looks Juicy Compared to Gold’s Market Cap

The giant bitcoin fund still had a negative “premium” of more than 30% as of July 27, marking some of its biggest discounts to bitcoin’s spot price.

According to data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass, GBTC had a discount of 31.75% on the day, which is equivalent to buying Bitcoin at around $14,700.

As previously noted by Cointelegraph, Grayscale is currently involved in legal action against U.S. regulators for refusing to allow Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to be listed. The company said that GBTC should be converted into such an ETF product once it becomes capable.

GBTC premium vs. asset holdings vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Coinglass

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk and you should do your own research when making a decision.


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