Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a “cycle bottom” this year and could drop more than 50% from current levels, the study said.
In a June 1 Twitter post, Venturefounder, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, predicted that 2022 would be the year of Bitcoin’s “capitulation.”
Bitcoin now has ‘best 3-year ROI ever’
Based on historical patterns involving Bitcoin’s halving cycle, this year should be the bearish black sheep of the current four-year cycle, the Venturefounder wrote.
Just like 2018 and its bear market, BTC/USD should find its own macro bottom sometime in 2022, which could be between $14,000 and $21,000 if previous declines are counted from all-time highs.
“With 670 days until the next Bitcoin halving, we are on time for BTC performance compared to past cycles,” one tweet explained:
“In the next 670 days, BTC will capitulate and hit a cycle bottom ($14-21,000) in the next 6 months, then drop to $28-40,000 for most of 2023, and in the next Around $40,000 again at the halving.”
Such predictions, while not the music of the bulls, are not without precedent. After reaching $3,100 in December 2018, Bitcoin managed to recover to $13,800 seven months later before falling back again to the March 2020 low of $3,600.
Even the local high in 2019 was not enough to surpass the all-time high of $20,000 set in December 2017.
The Venturefounder believes that this level could once again be a feature of the spot price chart. Those who are willing to ride the waves and invest – even now – will still be on the right side of history.
“In other words, the best time to buy bitcoin between now and the next 6-12 months. Probably the best 3-year % ROI ever,” he added:
“We may not be at the cycle bottom, but we are in the range of the BTC cycle bottom. It’s the best thing you can do when timing a market cycle.”
Bottom forecast keeps coming
Meanwhile, others have estimated a possible bottom range at or near $14,000.
Related: ‘Super Bullish Signal’ or ‘Real Crash?’ 5 Things You Need to Know About Bitcoin This Week
The price would be down about 80% from its current all-time high of $69,000, corresponding to the previous cycle’s percentage low.
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the current level of around $31,000 is relatively modest due to a pullback.
Last month, analyst Rekt Capital calculated a potential price target of $15,500 once BTC/USD breaks below the 200-week moving average.
Sellers may face difficulties pushing the market lower. MicroStrategy, which has the largest BTC company funds, has committed to buy any cascade at $20,000.
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of trading giant BitMEX, also confirmed that he would be interested in BTC at $20,000.
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