Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a range that coincides with increased whale activity in the region, according to on-chain analytics resource Whalemap.
Bitcoin’s range-bound action has kept analysts speculating, with some expecting the consolidation to continue for a while, while others expect further declines.
A report by Glassnode on June 6 stated that the cumulative realized losses for long-term holders reflected more than 0.006% of the market value on May 29. This compares to a peak of 0.015% of market cap reached during the 2018-2019 bear market.
In addition to the amount of losses, investors may also have to prepare for a longer period of price downturn. The current losses for long-term investors last only a month, compared with about a year for previous losses.
Can the sluggish trading behavior of Bitcoin and other major altcoins continue? Let’s study the chart of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin fell below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($30,565) on June 7, but a positive sign is that bulls are aggressively buying the dip to the trendline of the ascending triangle pattern. Looking at the long tail of the day’s candlestick, this led to a strong recovery. The ascending triangle pattern remains intact in favor of buyers.
A small negative, however, is that the bulls were unable to build on the momentum of June 8. This presents an opportunity for the bears, who once again pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA. This suggests that the bears are continuing to sell within the area between the 20-day EMA and $32,659.
If the bears sink the price below the trendline, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to $28,630, where buying is likely. If this happens, it will suggest that the pair may continue to trade between $32,659 and $28,630 for a few more days.
The next direction could start on a break above $32,659 or a dip below $28,630. Until then, the volatile range-bound move is likely to continue.
Ether (ETH) declined from its 20-day EMA ($1,908) on June 6, indicating that bears are reluctant to give way to bulls. Sellers then attempted to push the price below key support at $1,700 on June 7, but the long tail on the candlestick indicated that bulls were aggressively buying near the support.
The price is currently hovering between the downward sloping 20-day EMA and $1,700. This could lead to a widening of the range, setting the stage for the next directional move.
If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to $2,159. The bears are likely to mount a strong defense at this level again. If the price falls, the pair may stay in the $2,159 to $1,700 range for a while.
A break above $2,159 would be the first sign that the pair could bottom, while a break below $1,700 could signal a resumption of the downtrend.
BNB retreated from the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on June 6 and fell below the support line. This suggests that the bears continue to sell aggressively at higher levels.
The bears pulled the price below immediate support at $286 on June 7, but the long wicks on the candlesticks on the day showed strong buying at lower levels. The bulls are attempting to push the price back above the June 8 support line.
If they manage to do so, the BNB/USDT pair may try to rise above the resistance line and trap aggressive bears. Conversely, if the price turns down from the current levels, it will show that the bears have turned the support line into resistance. This could increase the odds of a drop to $265.
The long wicks on Cardano (ADA)’s June 6 and 7 candlesticks suggest that bears are selling the rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($0.65). Although the bears attempted to drag the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.58) on June 7, the bulls held their ground.
Buyers are again trying to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they are successful, the ADA/USDT pair could rally towards the $0.74 breakdown level. This is an important defensive level for the bears, as a breakout and close above this level could signal a possible trend change. The pair could then rally towards the psychological level of $1.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 50-day EMA or $0.74, the bears will try to pull the pair below the 20-day EMA and gain the upper hand.
Ripple (XRP) formed an extra-day candlestick pattern on June 7, with the price bouncing off strong support at $0.38 and closing near the overhead resistance of the descending trendline.
However, buyers were unable to build on this move to push prices above the June 8 downtrend line. This shows that the bears are continuing to sell near the resistance. The bears will once again try to sink the price below $0.38.
If successful, the XRP/USDT pair will complete a descending triangle pattern. That could lead to a drop to May 12’s intraday low of $0.33. If this support breaks, the next stop could be the pattern target of $0.30.
This negative view could be invalidated in the short-term if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rally to $0.46.
Solana (SOL)’s attempt to start a recovery has met strong resistance at the 20-day EMA ($45), which suggests that the trend remains negative and that traders are selling on rallies.
The bears will try to sink the price below the key support area between $37 and $35. If they manage to do so, the SOL/USDT pair may resume its downtrend. The pair could then drop to $30.
Conversely, if the price bounces off the support area, it will indicate that the bulls are accumulating at lower levels. A break above the 20-day EMA would be the first sign that selling pressure may be easing. The pair could then rise to $50 and then $60.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has once again retreated from its 20-day EMA ($0.08) on June 6, suggesting that bears are selling in a rally. A lesser positive is that bulls bought the dip on June 7, suggesting buying at lower levels.
The DOGE/USDT pair has been stuck in a tight range between the 20-day EMA and $0.07, indicating uncertainty between the bulls and the bears. Usually, the narrow range resolves with the expansion, but it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout.
If the price rises above the 20-day EMA, likely wait-and-see buyers could enter and push the pair towards the psychological $0.10 level. Conversely, if the price breaks below $0.07, the pair is likely to resume its downtrend.
Related: Ethereum ‘Double Doji’ Pattern Hints at 50% ETH Price Rise by September
Polkadot (DOT) attempted to break above the 20-day EMA ($10) on June 6, but the long wicks on the candlesticks that day showed strong selling by the bears.
The DOT/USDT pair broke below the support line on June 7, indicating that the symmetrical triangle resolved in favor of sellers. The pair is likely to drop to strong support at $8.50 next and buyers will try to stop the decline.
This negative view could be invalidated in the short-term if the price rises from current levels and rises above the resistance line of the triangle. Such a move would suggest that a break below the support line could be a bear trap. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($12.35).
Buyers attempted to push Avalanche (AVAX) above the 20-day EMA ($28) on June 6, but a long wick on the candlestick on the day suggests that the bears are aggressively defending that level.
Prices are squeezed between the 20-day EMA and strong support at $21, but this tight range is unlikely to last long.
If the bulls push the AVAX/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA, it will signal the start of a recovery that could reach $37. A positive divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also supports a relief rally in the near term.
Alternatively, if the range extends to the downside and the price plummets below $21, the pair could resume its downtrend and drop to $18.
The bears attempted to sink Shiba Inu (SHIB) below the strong support at $0.000010 on June 7, but the bulls managed to hold this level, judging by the long tail of the day’s candlestick.
The longer the price trades below the 20-day EMA ($0.000012), the more likely it is to break below $0.000010. If this happens, the SHIB/USDT pair could drop to $0.000009 and the bulls could try to stop the decline.
To invalidate the bearish view, the bulls will have to push the price higher and sustain above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do so, the pair could rally to $0.000014, where the bears could mount a strong defense.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading action involves risk. You should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.