Overnight, the Fed raised the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to a range of 1.5-1.75%, the highest rate hike since 1994. Powell said that he would unswervingly bring down inflation, but raising interest rates by 75 basis points would not be the norm. The probability of a 75bps rate hike in July remains at 93.4%. The implementation of the interest rate decision is basically in line with expectations. We should pay attention to the CPI situation next month. If it falls, it means that the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points will greatly increase, which will benefit the market. Otherwise, it will be difficult to continue to meet expectations. get worse. The Fed also stated in the meeting that it expects interest rates to peak in 2023 and start to cut interest rates in 2024, which gave the market an infinitely better imagination, and the bulls started a crazy counterattack. Everything is in the Fed’s overall situation. Whether inflation will eventually fall back as scheduled is still a question mark. Global uncertainty is increasing, and the risk-averse market for funds may continue for some time.
From the perspective of stablecoins, US$1.6 billion has been withdrawn from the USDT pool in the past 48 hours, reducing the supply of USDT to the lowest level since October last year. In the second quarter, the total supply of stablecoins experienced the largest drop in history. It shows that in the context of tightening, funds are frantically withdrawing from the market to make up for the lack of liquidity in other markets, which reflects the signal of capital aversion to the risk-averse market from the side.
On the other hand, some thunders still exist in the industry, such as the ETH liquidation of Three Arrows Capital and the liquidity crisis of Celsius. These problems still exist in the form of dolls. At present, Celsius still has a lot of steth for aave and other protocols. If you really need to liquidate in the future, it will inevitably make Curve’s steth/eth more inclined, and in order to realize it, eth may be smashed. It can only be said that these thunders are temporarily over, but if ETH quickly falls back below 1000, these potential risks will surface again. Judging from some data and the shape of the k-line, the madman tends to rebound in the short term rather than continue to smash the market. In the medium and long term, we need to continue to observe the development of the situation. Yesterday, the whole network watched the three arrows explode, and in the end, there was no full liquidation by 1%. This kind of liquidation without fighting back was actually carried by the bulls. The trap of , the seemingly hopeless market hides a vitality, which is our short-term bullish logic.
Fidelity global macro executives tweeted that Bitcoin’s network ratio has fallen to levels seen in 2013 and 2017, is undervalued and technically oversold. In fact, many data are now pointing to the fact that Bitcoin has entered a historically undervalued area. For example, the NVT value has hit a 4-year low, and the realized market value of Ethereum has dropped to $205.7 billion, a new low in 7 months. In an undervalued position, it still takes a lot of courage to buy, which is the most interesting part of the trading market.
Yesterday, miners transferred 88,000 bitcoins, a record high, which shows how huge the pressure of miners to sell coins is now. Due to the plummeting price of coins, some mainstream miners have entered the shutdown price. In order to ensure their operating costs, they must sell regardless of the cost. It also put selling pressure on the market.
MicroStrategy CEO said that he will consider buying more Bitcoin, this position is an ideal position to buy, and believes that whether it is 2, 5 or 10 years, Bitcoin is the best asset, the current 4-year moving average price is 21685 Dollars, as long as they are held for more than 4 years, no one will lose money. This guy is now the biggest bull in the market. Whether he can raise funds to continue to dilute the cost depends on his storytelling ability.
Visa has cooperated with Brazil and Argentina to launch a variety of encrypted cashback cards, which is still the same way that WeChat Pay grabbed the market back then, but this time it was the crazy share of encrypted payment in the world.
The U.K.’s science and technology secretary said plans to make the U.K. a global crypto hub. There should also be support and opposition within the UK. Before further policies are introduced, they all belong to the stage of talk.
Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance, said that the downturn in the crypto market has brought opportunities for buying.
Panic 7, near an all-time low.
Bitcoin: USD 510 million was liquidated in the 24h contract market again. Large-scale liquidations have occurred in the past few days, which has caused the market’s active funds to plummet. This liquidation will often bring the market downturn for a period of time, which means that the shock at the bottom will It will continue. At present, the daily line has not returned to the 5th line. The panic is serious. Tonight’s concern should be whether the 20,000 integer can be kept. Although this position is on the left side of the bottom, it is already a position that will not be trapped at all.
Ethereum: Official news shows that Ethereum will be upgraded in June, and the difficulty bomb will be delayed by 2-3 months. That is to say, if Ethereum wants to merge, the fastest time is still after August. 2.0 can be launched quickly or given a clear time point, most liquidity crises in the market will be lifted, steth will be bought in large quantities by arbitrageurs, and its normal liquidity will be restored, and many spiral liquidations will be solved. Ethereum will become the key to rescue the market in the future. In the short term, the pie will still be linked, and the 1000 defense battle will be extremely critical.
FTT: Three Arrows Capital charged US$90 million in FTT to the exchange. This is to smash all kinds of chips in exchange for some liquidity. FTT is short-term negative, but it does not affect its long-term development.
There is no need to intervene throughout the day, and the key points of the bull consensus are still 20,000 and 1,000.
Disclaimer: The article only represents the author’s personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective point and position of the block. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and blocker will not be responsible for the direct and indirect losses caused by investors’ transactions.
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