Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, said the global stock market downturn could lead to a “big crash” in the cryptocurrency market in the second quarter of this year, and he predicted that Bitcoin could fall to 30,000. USD, while Ether will fall to $2,500. Therefore, he is buying put options as a safe haven.
In his latest blog post, Arthur Hayes pointed out that the recent trend of cryptocurrencies and U.S. technology stocks has become more and more consistent, and the war between Ukraine and Russia will damage both. While he remains bullish on cryptocurrency markets in the long term, he makes a point that they are standing on the precipice of a “catastrophic crisis.” However, that assumes that a plunge in the Nasdaq 100 will drag down the cryptocurrency market.
Arthur Hayes supports his argument by posting a series of charts highlighting the correlation between traditional markets and cryptocurrencies.
More complicated, though, is why Arthur Hayes sees the Nasdaq 100 falling, blaming the fallout from the Ukrainian-Russian war. “As the Ukrainian-Russian war continues, tensions could escalate even further, causing the global economy to slow due to higher commodity prices,” Arthur Hayes wrote, adding that this is quite negative for stock prices.
Arthur Hayes’ second argument is that central banks frantically cut interest rates to save the market a while ago, hot money overflowed, and global stock markets hit new highs, which tended to support the Nasdaq 100 index, but now the world is increasing interest rate hikes to deal with inflation , As the cost of capital rises, it will inevitably have a negative effect on the stock market.
The third element is a chart based on the Nasdaq 100 Index. Arthur Hayes said the tech index’s failure to bounce back sharply at key technical levels suggests it could be headed lower.
To sum up, he is bearish on the Nasdaq 100 in the short term, and as the cryptocurrency market moves in sync with tech stocks, Arthur Hayes estimates that Bitcoin may fall to $30,000 by the end of June, while Ethereum will fell to $2,500.
In addition to Bitcoin, Arthur Hayes said he has been accumulating other altcoins because of their lower prices, but he remains concerned that altcoins are also “in danger” this year. “While some altcoins have fallen 75% from their all-time highs, I don’t think even they will survive the coming crypto carnage,” he said.
Arthur Hayes acknowledged that the above analysis may not be 100% accurate, saying, “If Bitcoin, Ethereum and [那斯達克 100 指數] If the correlations start to fall before risk asset markets crash, I would be wrong. “
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