Glassnode : The worst Bitcoin capitulation may be over!Institutional survey: 54% of investors have not sold coins in the past few weeks

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Glassnode : The worst Bitcoin capitulation may be over!Institutional survey: 54% of investors have not sold coins in the past few weeks
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According to the latest survey released by consumer intelligence research platform CivicScience on the 26th, during the currency market decline in recent weeks, about 54% of the surveyed cryptocurrency investors did not sell any cryptocurrency holdings. Glassnode’s latest weekly report pointed out that in the long run, the worst Bitcoin capitulation may be over, but the market may still take longer to recover. (Recap:Fed up 3 yards as scheduled!Bitcoin broke through 23,000, Nasdaq jumped 4%; Powell said that the pace of interest rate hikes may slow down, denying recession) (background supplement:Bitcoin falls below 21,000 magnesium again!Bloomberg analyst: BTC volatility is at a new low, and it is expected to outperform the market in the second half of the year)

removeAccording to a report released by consumer intelligence research platform CivicScience on the 26th, during the market decline in recent weeks, about 54% of the surveyed cryptocurrency investors did not sell any holdings of cryptocurrencies, and about 26% of investors sold almost all their holdings. About 20% of investors only sell small amounts of cryptocurrencies.

Source: CivicScience

Among them, about 70% of investors with an annual income of more than $150,000 have not sold any cryptocurrency in the past few weeks, only 19% have sold all cryptocurrencies, and 11% have sold some cryptocurrencies.

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Investors with annual income between $100,000 and $150,000, 19% sold all cryptocurrencies, 15% sold some cryptocurrencies, and 66% did not sell any cryptocurrencies;

Investors with an annual income between $50,000 and $100,000, 24% sold all cryptocurrencies, 24% sold some cryptocurrencies, and 52% did not sell any cryptocurrencies.

In contrast, a whopping 39% of investors with an annual income of less than $50,000 sold all cryptocurrencies, 26% sold some cryptocurrencies, and just 35% did not sell any cryptocurrencies.

About 70% of investors earning more than $150,000 a year have not sold any cryptocurrency in the past few weeks. Source: CivicScience

Its survey shows that nearly 1 in 4 respondents themselves or their friends have been affected by the collapse of cryptocurrencies in the past few weeks; overall, only 20% of respondents have invested in cryptocurrencies, and 9% have not yet invested, but Planning to invest, a whopping 71% have never invested in cryptocurrencies.

Only 20% of respondents have invested in cryptocurrencies. Source: CivicScience

Glassnode Says Worst Bitcoin Surrender May Be Over

At the same time, Glassnode released a weekly report this week, saying that after Bitcoin had consolidated around $20,000 for a month, the price of Bitcoin had a long-awaited rebound. Dragged down by macro indicators, it may take some time to form a solid foundation.

Glassnode also pointed out that with the market value of Bitcoin falling by more than 75% in 2022, most speculators have been driven out of the market, and Bitcoin holdings are undergoing a redistribution process from low-believers to strong believers. Assets are moved to less cost-sensitive long-term holders who are willing to invest for a longer period of time, keeping their bitcoins in cold wallets.

Its conclusion mentions that long-term supply dynamics are continuing to improve, with Bitcoin holdings gradually shifting towards long-term holders, but it is worth noting that the supply is concentrated at $20,000, $30,000, and $40,000, which is consistent with technical and on-chain price models Consistently, these price areas are important areas of interest.

Unsold Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode concluded that the short-term upward momentum suggests that the uptrend continues, but only if the realized price and long-term holders realized the price must act as a support level; while in the long-term, the worst Bitcoin capitulation It may be over, but the market may take longer to recover as fundamental repairs continue.

OKLink says Bitcoin still has room to fall

Blockchain data and technology service provider OKLink and quantitative hedge fund Lucida released a report this week to analyze whether Bitcoin has bottomed out. The report pointed out that each halving cycle can be divided into 5 stages, namely bull market, Bear market, accumulation, expansion and re-accumulation, and it is currently in the middle and late stages of the bear market. If nothing else, it will usher in accumulation in Q4.

The price trend of Bitcoin during previous halving cycles. Source: OKLink

However, the report mentioned that over the past three Bitcoin halving cycles, Bitcoin’s largest retracements were 94%, 86%, and 84%, respectively. The biggest drop of Bitcoin in this round was 74%. Considering the macro background of the Fed raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet, as well as the length of the bear market in the past “seeking sword” style (there is still a deviation of 2-4 months in the current time dimension), Bitcoin prices still have some room to fall.

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