[Mad man says trend]2.1 billion options will be delivered tomorrow, and sticking to 20,000 should be a high probability

[The madman talks about the trend]Slowly fluctuating down, it is expected to have no direction today and tomorrow

Madman says…

Ball’s semi-annual monetary policy hearings were held for two consecutive days. At yesterday’s hearing, the speech related to cryptocurrencies was mainly about the need for better regulation of cryptocurrencies and who will regulate the cryptocurrency market. The meeting also said, The sharp fall in the market did not have a significant impact on the macro environment, and the Fed is resolute in restoring inflation to 2%, so any rate hikes (including 100 basis points) are not ruled out. At 22 o’clock tonight, the hearing will continue. It is expected that Tai Chi will still have a substantial impact on the market. The market will continue its own oversold rally, but every time the Fed speaks, it will trigger the market. Therefore, it is still the first priority to control the position, especially the leveraged position. You can consider reducing the leverage every time there is a sharp rebound, so as to avoid unnecessary black swan events.

In addition, the Fed Harker believes that interest rates should exceed 3% by the end of the year, which is still a long way from the current 1.75%. If interest rates are raised by 75 basis points in July, there will be 50 basis points of interest rate hikes by the end of the year. The general expectation for next year is between 3.75-4%, so in fact, once the interest rate hike in July is implemented, the expectation of subsequent tightening will also weaken. The probability of 17,000 becoming the macro bottom is also great. How to increase the rate in July? We still have to wait for the CPI data on the evening of July 13. If it can fall, it is very likely to become a turning point for the entire risk market, because global inflation, including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, are at 40-year highs. When will inflation fall? , becoming the biggest concern of global venture capital.

Bitcoin spot ETF Proshares has launched an ETF for shorting Bitcoin. After listing yesterday, the trading volume today is about 35 million US dollars, which is obviously far lower than the listing of Bitcoin spot ETF at that time, indicating that most funds in this position have no intention of shorting, even if Not bullish and think that there is not much room for the downside. The listing of short-selling bitcoin ETFs has important guiding significance for the future listing of bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States. The SEC previously rejected the listing of spot ETFs mainly because of market manipulation. Now that such a hedging mechanism is in place, it will speed up the operation of compliance. However, from the perspective of the negative premium of Grayscale GBTC, it is still above -30%, which is a historical low, indicating that funds are not optimistic about the timetable for Grayscale GBTC to be converted into Bitcoin spot ETF, otherwise such a large arbitrage space, The big institutions of the prophets of the message have already rushed in and waited for arbitrage.

The story of Three Arrows Capital continues. It is obviously a nightmare for those institutions that invest in Three Arrows. Cryptocurrency broker Voyager Digital has an investment of 15,250 bitcoins and 350 million USDC in Three Arrows Capital. The three arrows have all been repaid a few days ago on June 27. At present, the probability of default is extremely high. Alameda announced to support Voyager’s revolving credit line of 200 million US dollars and 15,000 bitcoins. Constantly charging FTX with stable coins is probably used to exchange BTC to provide credit for it. Since 22:00 yesterday, nearly 300 million US dollars have been transferred in. This is also a part of the Bitcoin bull camp. These latter liquidations and default events It will also have a series of impacts on the market. We still have to maintain a high degree of attention. The short-term liquidation risk has come to an end and has become the source of continued strong rebound.


Yesterday, SBF provided BlockFi with a line of credit of $250 million to ease its liquidity. Today, we saw that BlockFi transferred FTT worth $55 million to FTX. This is obviously a delaying plan given by the exploding head worried about BlockFi’s smashing of the market. After all The platform currency of FTX must be involved in the interests of the top leaders of the United States. If it plummets, the public relations business of the explosive head will not be easy to do. This is a lot of unknown business secrets, so the above-mentioned revolving credit must also have some His own logic, business has only common interests, no enemies and no friends.

Runway Capital will submit an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF as soon as this week, which is also the second time that Runway Capital has submitted. However, the SEC still has no timetable for when the bitcoin spot ETF will pass. Let’s see who the jackpot ends up winning.

Canada’s first bitcoin spot ETF Propose bitcoin ETF has outflowed about 24,510 bitcoins in a single day, which is about half of the assets under management before, indicating that institutional investors are surrendering. It can be seen that the market’s ability to undertake is still good, so a rebound can be expected.

Bitcoin computing power has dropped sharply, down 2.35% in the past two weeks, the second largest drop this year. Miners have surrendered in large numbers. The computing power is calculated from the highest point. The current computing power has dropped by 10%, which is similar to the 2018-2019 The experience is somewhat similar and belongs to one of the bottom signals of the market. Poolin, the world’s largest mining pool, is also selling coins and sending 5,000 bitcoins to Binance, which shows that the cost pressure on miners is still very high, and it has become part of the short-term bear force.

Panic 11, extreme panic.

Coin News:

Bitcoin: There will be a $2.1 billion Bitcoin option delivery tomorrow. Let’s take a look. The biggest pain point is 29,000. The distance is far away now. In extreme market conditions, the seller’s institution may have to thank a little bit. For the seller, keep the 20,000 mark now. It has a high cost performance. If you are aggressive, you will have a huge short-selling option if you rush to 24,000 and 25,000. You can reap a lot of chips, but it will rise by 20% from tonight to tomorrow. of. The third largest bitcoin whale continues to increase its holdings of 565 bitcoins. This buddy has unlimited bullets and already holds 129,936 bitcoins. The market demand is further increasing. After the long-short game, the oversold and rebounded market continues.

ETH: Continue to link the pie, there is not much news recently, waiting for the difficulty bomb to be postponed on 6.29, and waiting for the announcement of the final launch time of 2.0.

MATIC: Addresses holding 1-10 million tokens increased by 8.7% within 6 weeks, indicating that large and medium-sized households are increasing their holdings. The ecological development of this token is good, and the bottom rebound is relatively strong. .

The bears are already exhausted, waiting for the assembly of many troops.

Disclaimer: The article only represents the author’s personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective point and position of the block. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the authors and blockers will not be responsible for the direct and indirect losses caused by investors’ transactions.

This article[Mad Men Say Trend]2.1 billion options will be delivered tomorrow, and sticking to 20,000 should be the first to appear on the blocker with a high probability.


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