[Mad man says trend]Bitcoin’s rebound to hit 28,000-30,000 is still worth looking forward to

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[Mad man says trend]Bitcoin’s rebound to hit 28,000-30,000 is still worth looking forward to
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Madman says…

The days go by so fast, and the week goes by in a blink of an eye. In this week, except for the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points, which was in line with expectations, there was almost no decent news. The market was relatively deserted and depressed. I started to update, but considering that I have promised you “see you next week” before, I still put down some unfinished things and say hello to everyone. From now on, the update time will be advanced from 18 o’clock to 14 o’clock in the evening From 15:00 to 15:00, if there is something temporarily that cannot be updated on time, it will be notified on Weibo or Twitter. Please continue to support more. Let’s start today’s topic.

The U.S. dollar index has continued to hit a new 20-year high, reaching 113. The recent rise has accelerated to a certain extent, and has seriously deviated from the moving average. With the gap period of interest rate hikes in October, it is likely to start a correction trend. If the U.S. dollar index can be as scheduled A pullback will boost the U.S. stock market and the crypto market, so we don’t need to be too pessimistic at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Again, the worst time has passed. Even if we raise interest rates in November and December, it will be different At 50 basis points, the dollar cannot keep rising like this. When all expectations are realized, the negative market will become positive. We should at least be optimistic about the recovery in October.

Let’s talk about the data on the bitcoin chain. The supply of bitcoins that have not been active for more than 10 years has reached a record high, indicating that more and more bitcoins are sleeping, and 65% of bitcoins have not moved at all in the past year. This means that circulation is still extremely low. At the same time, the ahr999 index has been in the bottom-hunting range for 5 weeks, indicating that the bottom of Bitcoin is gradually forming; addresses holding 0.1 and 1 Bitcoin have continued to hit record highs, and the number of whales holding more than 1,000 coins has reached a 6-month low. From the overall data, smart money is still not optimistic about the continued rise in the future, which is related to the overall macro environment, so even if there can be a good rebound in the fourth quarter, there is a high probability that there will be a chance for a second dip, which is phased. Opportunities for a rebound, not a long-term upswing point, this bottom still needs more time to kill, and we are better off waiting patiently.

In addition, the circulation of USDC also decreased by 500 million US dollars last week, which shows that institutions are still mainly fleeing, and it also supports the above short-term rebound and non-reversal point of view. To regain synergy, the currency needs to lose trust or restart the money printing machine.

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The current daily activity of the 9 major public chains is only more than 2 million addresses. If you count users, it should be difficult to reach 2 million. The number one is BNB, followed by SOL, ETH, and MATIC. The so-called decentralization or WEB3, in the current downturn, is still a false proposition, expect someone to make an explosive and out-of-the-circle WEB3 application. From the perspective of public chains, the four most valuable public chains are the above four.

The Moscow Exchange drafted the Act on Digital Financial Assets and Securities Trading. It seems that Russia has already planned to comply with the regulations on crypto assets to be traded in the securities market. More and more developed countries and large countries have chosen to regulate and embrace, and the full adoption in the future will be more and more come closer.

Panic 24, still in extreme panic.

Coin News:

Bitcoin: At present, the Bitcoin bulls have been compressed to the extreme, and there will soon be a wave of rising. This trend is a bit like the wave in May-July 2021. After the fall, the market has risen sharply. The macro environment does not support direct reversal, so a rebound that hits 28000-30000 is still worth looking forward to.

ETH: The recent pullback has been relatively sharp, mainly due to the sharp drop in the activity on the chain. After the market picks up and the activity on the chain resumes, where Ethereum will fall and then rise back to where, so buy on dips. All right.

DOGE: In the past week, 6 giant whales bought 620 million DOGE. The dog shit combination has begun to attract some funds at this position, but they are all left-side positions, and there is no need to rush to copy orders, unless you are also thinking of long-term holdings.

XTZ: The 11th mainnet upgrade was activated on Friday, which is expected to boost short-term currency prices. You can pay attention.

ADA: The founder said that many projects will use new features after the upgrade. The founder probably lost his face a bit. He boasted that the market did not pay for it for so long. The most fundamental reason was that the ecology was too small. Since the benefits of the upgrade have not been pulled up, then give it up and consider changing positions.

CHZ: It’s been a good week. The World Cup is expected to be a clear sign, and there should be some strong expectations in the future. However, after this wave of new highs, the daily line deviates. If you want to take profits, the short-term consideration should be halved.

There is nothing to add. Let’s take a look at the opening of the US stock market tomorrow. It will take an opportunity in the short term to choose a direction.

Disclaimer: The article only represents the author’s personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective point and position of the block. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and blocker will not be responsible for the direct and indirect losses caused by investors’ transactions.

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