The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in June is 76.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points before is more than 99%. The rapid change has raised expectations of monetary tightening again. Overnight, US stocks closed sharply lower, and the Nasdaq fell. 4.68%, a new low since October 2020, and Bitcoin, which is also linked, also hit a new low since December 2020, and risk market investors were forced to sell a large amount of assets to ensure sufficient liquidity. For encrypted assets, there is still a certain structural selling pressure. These funds are not optimistic about the future of the market, but just sell assets due to lack of liquidity and risk hedging. Here are a few examples:
Celsius faced a liquidation risk of more than US$400 million at US$22,584 yesterday, and then replenished the margin twice, reducing the liquidation risk to around 17,000, and the liquidation risk has not been lifted;
1. Microstrategy transferred 2,089 bitcoins for the first time, which was interpreted by the media as a plan to reduce its holdings. At present, the company’s bitcoin book losses have exceeded $1 billion, and it is likely to provide additional collateral for this year’s $205 million loan. If you can’t provide it, you will inevitably face passive lightening;
2. The founder of Bitmex said that Bitcoin and Ethereum have huge selling pressure at $20,000 and $1,000 because a large number of traders are shorting put options. When the strike price is close, you must sell the spot to hedge the risk. face selling pressure;
3. In the past 24 hours, the contract has been liquidated by 1.3 billion US dollars, with 51% of the longs and 49% of the shorts. Although it is a double explosion, it is also one of the fuels for the market to rise and fall. Bitfinex is now the commander-in-chief of the longs, and the platform has a lot of orders. Increase, the long-to-short ratio has reached 50:1, this is the base camp of Tether, let’s see who has the ability to get rid of him;
4. The liquidation risk of the Defi lending agreement, there is still a large amount of liquidation funds around $1,000 in Ethereum. For example, MakerDAO has recently sold nearly 100,000 ETH to repay its debts.
These are the risk points of the future market. For short-selling institutions, it is a good way to make money by taking advantage of panic to blast some clear-cut agreements. After all, these liquidated assets are in the clear, and the manipulators behind them are in the dark. , it can be said that it is easy to hide with open guns, and difficult to guard against dark arrows.
The founder of Skybridge Capital said that he is still optimistic about Bitcoin and Ethereum, and is buying more Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The third-richest person in Mexico thinks the current price is suitable to buy bitcoin, saying he will regret not buying more bitcoin at this price in a few years.
Billionaire Novogratz believes cryptocurrencies are closer to a bottom than U.S. stocks.
The support of these bosses will ease the Air Force, which is waiting for an opportunity, because if they go to the market at this time, they are likely to be attacked by super funds outside the market, and the gains outweigh the losses. Knowing that, it is more certain that there is room for an oversold rebound in the short term, and the interest rate meeting in the early morning of the 16th is getting closer and closer. Every bad landing has a chance to pull the market, and the US stocks tonight also have a chance because of this expectation. There is a big rise, so the short-term decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum has come to an end, and the height of the rebound determines the future trend.
The Brazilian congressman proposed a bill to recognize bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a means of payment. It is unclear whether the government will pass it, but the currency circle in South America is now developing quite wonderfully.
Bank of America reports that 91% of respondents intend to buy cryptocurrencies in the next 6 months, and as the market declines, investor enthusiasm has not receded, which is the power of consensus and the basis for the future of the currency circle.
Red Shirt has launched two blockchain funds with a scale of 2.85 billion US dollars. This is a big increase. The focus of Red Shirt is generally in the primary market. If you are not optimistic about this industry, it will be difficult to spend so much money. make an investment.
Last week, the outflow of crypto investment was 100 million US dollars, which is not too much. Ether has already outflowed 400 million US dollars this year, which is the most serious institutional withdrawal. This year is the reshuffle year of Ethereum. Those who are optimistic about the future will continue to increase their positions. Those who have other ideas on the chain track will allocate assets to other public chains.
According to PwC’s survey, most crypto fund managers predict that Bitcoin will reach $50,000 to $100,000 by the end of the year, with a median of $75,000. Investment institutions are still optimistic about the market, which will allow them to continue to hunt for bottoms in the right position. Consolidate the bottom of the market.
Real Vision CEO said that there will be 5 billion people using cryptocurrencies in 2030. This is a madman who does not believe it. I personally think that the development is not so fast because of different perspectives. If China does not loosen its ties, the world will not be able to reach this number, but Even 2 billion people is equivalent to 20 times the current increase, a very terrifying growth.
Vitalik changed the dolphin forest vitalik.eth to vitalik.eth. This dolphin forest was previously interpreted by everyone as hoarding coins = zero. The market fell and everyone estimated that V God was spraying enough, and changing it back is also considered to be out of anger among the common people.
Panic 8, once again dropped to single digits, a sign of the arrival of an oversold rebound.
Bitcoin: The recent rebound is seen in the area of 25000 – 26000. This wave of acceleration is too fast, which is unexpected and shocking. After everyone reacts, the army will effectively counterattack.
Ethereum: The market transaction volume has generally increased significantly, which is a sign of bulls taking over, so this rebound to 1300-1400 is a normal trend.
Let’s not look at small coins first, but there are indeed two coins in the mainstream that have certain advantages. One is ADA and the other is LINK. The common feature of the two coins is that they almost did not follow Bitcoin and Ethereum to hit new lows and walked out of their own way. At the same time, at the time of the most panic this morning, there was a significant increase in volume, and it rebounded first. This is the result of capital support regardless of cost, and there is a chance to come out first in the future.
Disclaimer: The article only represents the author’s personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective point and position of the block. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the authors and blockers will not be responsible for the direct and indirect losses caused by investors’ transactions.
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