[Madman Says Trend]Madman is not worried that Ethereum will fail to upgrade, and the medium and long-term trend is still worth looking forward to

[Madman Says Trend]Madman is not worried that Ethereum will fail to upgrade, and the medium and long-term trend is still worth looking forward to

Madman says…

The US non-agricultural data for August was released yesterday, which was basically in line with expectations. The expected 3.5% and the actual unemployment rate were 3.7%. Overall, the impact on the economy was not too great. Biden said in the morning that the inflation problem in the United States is starting to slow down, and he saw more good news in the non-farm payrolls report. For the United States, an unemployment rate below 4% is acceptable, and inflation is increasing with The decline in oil prices is declining, so the CPI data in August will likely continue to fall, that is to say, the CPI in June is more likely to see a big peak, and the room for continued substantial interest rate hikes will gradually decrease. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s chief investment officer said the market still does not appear to believe that the Fed will stop raising interest rates until inflation is effectively contained, and he does not think the central bank will withdraw from its policy of continuing to raise interest rates. The madman agrees, but the rate of interest rate hikes will gradually slow down, which is a relatively good sign. It is expected that the Fed will eventually raise interest rates to around 4% next year. Before that, Bitcoin should have a hard time getting back above 40,000. , it has returned to the undervalued area, so continuing to fluctuate is the main tone.

According to the survey, 73% of U.S. retail investors believe that cryptocurrencies are trustworthy. This survey reflects the thinking of Satoshi Nakamoto when he created Bitcoin. Due to the continuous printing of money by the central bank, people’s purchasing power has been declining, and the central bank has lost its due credit. Bitcoin was born. The idea of ​​retail investors in the United States today is precisely because people are increasingly distrusting centralized fiat currencies, leaving the power to store assets to themselves, and leaving the inflation and deflation of currency to the market instead of some interest groups. It is the fairest economic system in the future.

The trading volume of both CEX and DEX declined in August, indicating that the market sentiment is very sluggish, and Binance still has an absolute advantage, followed by Coinbase (9.3%) and FTX (7.8%). FTX has surpassed Coinbase before, and its share has been chased back recently, indicating that the old exchange still has its tenacity, but this trend of being surpassed is unavoidable. Binance will continue to lead the market in a large cycle in the future. Therefore, the dynamics of its platform deserves our more attention.

Bybit fired the first shot of zero commission. From September 6th, the spot has zero commission. The main business of this exchange is contracts, and the spot is not its main source of profit, but the trend of this price war is intensifying. Crypto exchange Revolute also made an announcement to reduce commissions. This is the general trend, from the free transaction before 2017 to the gradual return to the past in 2022, which is also a manifestation of a cycle.


HUOBI announced that it will stop Chinese users from depositing money into the account, that is to say, if you deposit money into your account, it will no longer be displayed. If you charge by mistake, it will take 500 US dollars and 20 working days to withdraw. This time the clearing is really complete, an era is over, and Huobi has completely said goodbye to us.

Asset management giant BlackRock will use Kraken’s bitcoin index to price and launch its bitcoin products. Previously, it called Coinbase’s bitcoin interface to launch a bitcoin private trust. BlackRock is really ready to use, and several compliant The products of the exchange, whichever is easy to use, can be used directly. If you don’t develop it yourself, you will eat the profits of the user side. This type of decision-making will speed up the entry of U.S. institutions into the crypto market.

FTX issued an update on the Ethereum merger, the most important of which is the snapshot time. The announcement shows that the snapshot will be taken when Paris performs the layer upgrade, that is to say, the snapshot time will be around September 15th. Other exchanges are likely to follow this time, leaving 10 days for Ethereum to speculate on the candy-sharing market, so it still has strong expectations.

Last week, the supply of USDC decreased by USD 400 million again, which can still be judged as the reduction of institutional holdings, but the increase in BUSD indicates that retail investors are still inflowing from this position.

Panic 21, extreme panic.

Coin News:

Bitcoin: Last active supply greater than 10 years hit another all-time high at 2,508,000, a sign that more and more coins have never moved in 10 years, a sign of declining supply. It is expected that the weekend will still be dominated by shocks, and the current shock range is 19500-20500.

Ethereum: Coindesk’s chief content officer said that the merger of Ethereum has not yet been factored into the current price of Ethereum, which he believes is due to market concerns that Ethereum does not necessarily adhere to the purest principles of decentralization and that the merger has a high probability of failure and failure . The madman is not worried that the upgrade of Ethereum will fail, and there will be some bugs at most. After the merger is completed, the medium and long-term trend is still worth looking forward to. In the short term, the linkage will continue, and candy is expected to be relatively strong.

ADA: Vasil will be upgraded on September 22. It is expected that there will be hype before that. This is what historical experience tells us, and we can participate in ambush.

ETC: Bitmain’s Ethereum mining machine has released ETC firmware, and miners can directly switch the ETH computing power to ETC, which means that the computing power of ETC will increase again with the upgrade, and there will still be speculation opportunities later.

Weekend, everyone knows, nothing to add.

Disclaimer: The article only represents the author’s personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective point and position of the block. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and blocker will not be responsible for the direct and indirect losses caused by investors’ transactions.

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