Author: Chelsea Jonas
(1) Macro liquidity
Overall monetary liquidity tightened. As the market expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by the most since 1994 to curb high inflation, while strongly committed to lowering inflation. However, Powell also said that a single 75 basis point rate hike is too large to become a regular policy. After 8 Fed resolutions in the past year, U.S. stocks rose 6 times and then continued to make new lows. BTC is still related to the traditional market, but due to the liquidity crisis caused by the explosion of institutions in the falling cycle, it has entered passive liquidation, which has become the main reason for the continuous oversold in the market.
(2) On-chain indicators
Wash the strongest hands. BTC small-value addresses increase and large-value addresses decrease. It can be seen that new entry funds continue to increase, but large players and institutions are reducing their holdings. Demand from the hoarder group is still too small to eat up the current sell-side pressure. The long-term holding of BTC is also continuing to decrease, and this decrease is not necessarily a bad thing. From the perspective of historical data, the surrender of long-term holders often means the end of the phased decline.
BTC is barely holding near the historical total cost of liquidation price (23430). BTC experienced a lot of supply changing hands in the 30,000-40,000 price range, however little volume was seen between 20,000-27,000, which may have manifested as an unsupported area of high volatility.
(3) BTC long-term market indicators
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total cost of the market and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. The current indicator is 0.41, which has initially touched the green range of the historical bottom. The green zone tends to precede the end of a bear market, and can remain in this state for a period of time (from a few months in 2018 to a year in 2015) until the market strikes a final bottom.
(IV) BTC short-term market indicators
Futures funding rate: The funding rate has maintained a negative rate in recent days. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the rate of -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market. The market panic is very serious, and the short-term bottom features are obvious.
Futures long-short ratio: 2.3, the short-term market may continue to plummet. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.
Contract open interest: The speculative leverage in the system has dropped significantly this week, and long positions have been liquidated slightly.
(5) BTC Trend Analysis
The market is entering the deepest phase of this bear cycle as BTC falls off a cliff to new multi-year lows near 20,000. The current temporary stabilization of BTC is only due to the game of selling pressure and bargain-hunting funds. Once the rebound is found to be over or weak, these bargain-hunting chips will instantly turn into selling pressure. Therefore, we can only wait for the serial explosion of the institution and the completion of the on-chain liquidation, and after the chips have completely changed hands, a new round of bull-bear cycle can be started.
(6) Top 100 of the sector’s rise and fall
In the past week, BTC fell sharply by 26%, and the market fell across the board. BTC is still in a state of accumulation, while ETH has directly returned to a state of selling, reflecting that the current confidence in bottom-hunting ETH has been seriously insufficient. The recent rapid decline of ETH is caused by the stETH liquidity crisis of Lido, the ETH2.0 pledge solution protocol. The US wealth management platform Celsius, which holds a large position of stETH, has fallen into a crisis of user trust; and institutions led by SBF and Three Arrows Capital have also begun to sell and liquidate, which undoubtedly exacerbated market panic.
(1) The total lock-up volume of the public chain
Following the LUNA thunderstorm, it fell off a cliff again in a single week. This week, TVL dropped by 31.81B, a decline of 29.89%. The overall TVL level has dropped to the level in early April 2021, but the price of BTC at that time was $57,000. The overall market size is still expanding.
(2) The proportion of TVL in each public chain
The major currencies have fallen sharply, and the proportion of TVL on the single ETH chain has only decreased slightly, from 0.83% to 64.11%, while the proportion of the BSC chain has risen to 8.25%, and the overall changes of the other chains are small.
(3) The lock-up volume of each chain protocol
(IV) Summary of the agreement
The overall agreement saw a relatively large decline, and the slightly increased agreement was also caused by the short-term TVL fluctuations. The DEX of each chain fell by about 32%, while the loan agreement fell by around 40%, and the short-term loan agreement fell even more. serious.
(5) History of ETH Gas fee
The current on-chain transfer fee is about $1.37, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $4.65, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $5.1. Affected by the sharp drop in the market, the activity on the chain has returned to the bottom range again.
(6) Changes in NFT market data
NFT index market capitalization:
Overview of NFT market transactions:
The NFT market fell further and was affected by the slump in ETH. The dollar-denominated amount calculated at the beginning of the year has dropped by 73%; there has not been a good active project in the short term, and the top ones currently active in the trading volume rankings are all veteran heads. The transaction volume of the three NFT trading markets led by Opensea, X2Y2 and Magic Eden has dropped to less than half the level of the previous week.
(The above content is excerpted and reprinted with the authorization of our partner MarsBit News, link to the original text | Source: Foresight News)
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