The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in July fell to 86.7%, and the probability of 50 basis points rose to 13.3%. In the end, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in July or 75 basis points is still changing and cannot be easily concluded. Trump still advocates raising interest rates by 75 basis points, hoping that interest rates will be higher than 4% next year. There is no doubt that such a way of raising interest rates wants to fight inflation, and a recession in the United States will almost become a reality, because to fight inflation, the most fundamental thing is to reduce demand, increase supply, and reduce commodity prices. When the supply cannot be met, reducing demand will lead to negative economic feedback. This is the current situation. Therefore, at this stage, we still have to maintain a certain cash ratio and reserve it for a better time. At that time, the Federal Reserve will release water to rescue again. At that time, it is an excellent opportunity to expand investment. As for the current on-site funds, just take it, and it will not affect life. This position may consume some time costs, but There is very little room to continue to seriously damage assets, and it basically belongs to the normal fluctuation range of the currency circle.
Looking at the data on the chain, we are now in the largest drop in Bitcoin’s history, mainly due to the following indicators: The range below the 200-day moving average is so large that only 2% of it has historically fallen. The trading day is worse than it is now; The market realized market capitalization is the largest monthly drop in history (i.e. the extent of stop loss); The absolute loss and relative loss of locked losses, only 3.5% of the trading days in history are worse than now.
The transfer ratio of losses to profits is at an all-time high, which is inexorably linked to the downward spiral caused by the recent UST crash.
It is not difficult to see that various on-chain data of Bitcoin have shown that we are in a very extreme market, many indicators have created history, and most indicators have entered the darkest moment within 5% of history. Persevere a little longer, and when more people can’t stand it, it will be the time to keep the flowers blooming.
Recently, there have been rumors about the USDT thunderstorm. The madman first came to a conclusion. I personally think that there will be no problems. The main reason is that USDT has a huge scale, strong liquidity and reserves. Although it may not be 1:1, but There must be more than 80-90% of the reserves, so if the remaining part is maliciously shorted by super whales, there will also be arbitrage investors and exchanges to make up for it. In the end, the whales are likely to escape because of this. One day, when USDT broke off temporarily through various public opinions, such as 10-20% of the space, everyone boldly bought it, which was basically an opportunity to pick up money. SBF also said in an interview that Tether does not have any evidence to support this pessimistic view. At the same time, Tether is also planning to become the first stable currency with reserve audit. The conclusion is that the problem is not big. If it breaks the anchor, it will be brave to arbitrage.
PwC research shows that the biggest obstacle for traditional hedge funds to enter the crypto market is the uncertainty of regulation. Most hedge funds are planning or have already entered the crypto market, and the allocation ratio is about 1-5% of the total assets. Therefore, once the regulation is implemented in the future, There will still be more institutions participating in the market, and even a small amount of asset allocation adds up to a considerable amount of wealth.
The Horizon hacker address of the cross-chain bridge transferred 18,036 ETHs again. In the past 3 days, 54,000 ETHs have been transferred, and there are still more than 30,000 ETHs in the wallet. These ETHs are likely to be eventually thrown into the market and become potential smashing funds. The money that comes has no cost, just throw it away if you want.
Venture capital funds in the encryption field slowed down their investment again in June. Among them, they invested 6.8 billion US dollars in April, 4.2 billion in May, and 3.6 billion in June. Venture capital also converged a lot in the process of falling. This is the market’s power. In this context, some companies will also consider risks and continue to sell their bitcoin and ether. For example, Cypherpunk, a Canadian listed company, liquidated all the BTC and ETH of the company. This is a prudent and low-risk preference for companies .
Panic 13, extreme panic.
Bitcoin: U.S. stocks opened up and down overnight, bringing Bitcoin down. There are three possibilities for the second market. The stronger one is that it can withstand around 20,000, the weaker one is 19,000, and the worst is to create a New lows and back again. So if you have a position, you can choose three positions to increase your position in a pyramid fashion. If you don’t have a position, you can play dead. It will come back sooner or later. In the short term, you still need to observe the trend of US stocks in the evening.
ETH: The volatility is greater than that of Bitcoin, the overall bottom trend is stronger than that of Bitcoin, and the magnitude of the rebound will be greater in the future. Today, the leaseable NFT standard ERC4907 was launched, creating the function of automatic recovery upon expiration, reducing costs for the metaverse, games, membership cards and other fields, and better helping NFT to create its ecology. It is a major innovation of Ethereum. Good mid- to long-term positives.
ADA: With the market decline, the recent sharp drop in network activity has had a certain impact on the price of the public chain. ADA is mostly African users, so when the market improves, he should have the opportunity to restore some ecological value.
IMX: Today’s strength against the trend is mainly due to the fact that the IMX pledge will be opened on July 1st. The token has gone out of the independent market and is worth continuing to hold.
The market is so boring that people don’t want to talk. This depressed feeling often means the real bottom.
Disclaimer: The article only represents the author’s personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective point and position of the block. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and blocker will not be responsible for the direct and indirect losses caused by investors’ transactions.
This article[Mad Men Say Trend]There are three possibilities for the second exploration market. The most optimistic is that it can resist the first appearance in the block around 20,000.