Most institutions believe that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points next week as a high probability event, but there are also more hawkish institutions such as Nomura Securities that the June CPI data is so high that raising interest rates by 100 basis points is the right choice. The madman thinks that raising interest rates by 75 basis points should be relatively normal, because housing prices and oil prices, which constitute the core of the US CPI data, have fallen significantly this month, so this month’s CPI decline is almost a certainty, so the Fed has already There is no need to aggressively tighten the U.S. dollar. After all, the demand-side economic recession has arrived. If it tightens too much, the global economy will collapse more quickly, which is something that no one wants to see. After this rate hike, we can have a buffer period of nearly 2 months. In the second half of the year, there will be rate hike meetings in September and December. Other times are relatively stable and safe, so the market will be more stable than the first half of the year. much better.
The candidate for the US Senate believes that Bitcoin can be used to eliminate inflation. This is an extremely bold idea. Using Bitcoin to eliminate inflation is equivalent to giving up the Fed’s right to print money, and returning to the anchoring era of the Brinton Woods system. The conversion of the dollar standard to the bitcoin standard is almost impossible to achieve at the moment, and it is a bit too radical.
CryptoQuant analysis shows that in the recent crypto market rebound cycle, the addresses that have risen significantly are addresses above 10k, which means that this round of rise is driven by super whales, not retail investors, but it is not clear whether it is to start a bull market or to win Bounce to buy. Big funds will not do short-term casually, so the high probability is that the callback is relatively sufficient, and the layout is gradually started. The participation of giant whales in the market tends to be to the left, so it cannot be used as the proof of the final bottom, but can only be regarded as the position of the bottom range.
The single-day trading volume of micro-bitcoin futures on Coinbase exceeded 200,000, a record high, which indicates that a wave of retail investor funds began to enter the market. The second wave of rebounds will be relayed by these retail investors, and there is a high probability that the rebound of Ethereum and Bitcoin is not over yet.
The data shows that 80% of the Bitcoin circulation is in the hands of long-term holders, and only 20% of the supply is constantly changing hands in the market, so it is better to say that the market value of Bitcoin is only 4,000 trillion US dollars. 800 trillion, in fact, is still a small baby, as long as the big capital returns, it is very easy to pull back 450,000.
Panic 30, still panic.
Bitcoin: There is no problem with the trend. Those who are fighting for a rebound can continue to hold. The weekend period is still dominated by shocks, and it is expected to follow ETH slightly higher.
Ethereum: Deribit’s ETH perpetual contract open position has reached a one-month high, and the Ethereum option on July 29 at the end of this month is still quite large. The current biggest pain point is 1400, so there is still some pressure on the seller’s institution. If there is another wave of spraying up in the first half of the week, you should consider short-term lightening up.
XRP: In the past week, several major active wallets and dormant wallets have begun to transfer XRP in large quantities. It is not clear what this logic is, but it is obvious that it is definitely not a good thing to move tokens from dormant wallets. It may be related to the SEC lawsuit. Well, there is a high probability that it will be short-term bearish, so consider switching positions first.
ENS: The 24H transaction volume of domain names has increased by more than 120%, ranking No. 9 in Opensea transactions.
UNI: Recently, the total lock-up volume of UNI once exceeded that of CRV. In the past, CRV was in the dominant position of DeFi and ranked first for more than a year. Now it is facing certain challenges, which is good for UNI and bad for CRV. Continue to hold it, if you stand firm, you can pull another wave.
In the market where the strong are always strong, temporarily do not touch those in the back row, and those who are aggressive can find some strong back sideways to participate.
Disclaimer: The article only represents the author’s personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective point and position of the block. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the authors and blockers will not be responsible for the direct and indirect losses caused by investors’ transactions.
There is nothing wrong with the trend of this article[Madman Says Trend]and those who are fighting for a rebound can continue to hold the first appeared in the block guest.